¿Will the far-right reach Argentina?: How are the polls looking

It’s the time of surveys, but many are in tension and faced with the possibility that the far-right could reach Argentina.

Within the Peronist party, they’re discussing and analyzing potential scenarios leading up to the general elections. And the concern within this group is natural, as they coexist within the realms of traditional right-wing and the officialist left.

But when posed with the question of whether the far-right will make it to Argentina, one needs to know: ¿How many votes does Milei, the libertarian candidate, have? Did they start considering potential scenarios two weeks after the primaries.

Within the Peronist party, they believe that their chances of making it to the runoff election are becoming increasingly solid.

This is largely due to the consolidation of the voter base that the libertarian candidate managed to secure, apparently absorbing more opposition votes. In the initial surveys being managed, Javier Milei is leading with five points more than what he achieved in the primary elections.

¿Will the far-right reach Argentina?

In the field studies conducted after the Primaries, Milei maintains his lead. Analysts are already foreseeing the far-right making its presence in Argentina, but the rest of the political groups are already contemplating their positions in this scenario.

Within the officialist party, they understand that there is no reason to think they will be excluded from the runoff. In fact, many within their ranks believe they have an increasing chance of reaching the Casa Rosada (the Presidential Palace).

According to calculations made by the Union for the Homeland (UP) party, based on data comparisons of results in each province, between 3% and 4% of the votes that the libertarian candidate obtained in the primaries belong to the Peronists.

Meanwhile, they’ve taken votes away from the Together for Change party in the central region of the country.

The opposition coalition lost support in Entre Ríos, Mendoza, Córdoba, and Santa Fe, which form the electoral power base they had until the libertarian model introduced by Milei emerged.

“Milei shattered the entire political system. He took over the opposition. No one can displace him from that position,” stated an important figure within the Kirchnerist movement.

In the polls that reach the Peronist campaign headquarters, Milei is fluctuating between 35 and 38 points, while the Union for the Homeland is between 30 and 33, and Together for Change is between 19 and 23.

These numbers have started to solidify the idea that the runoff already has its protagonists, and that it’s essential to avoid unforced errors during the campaign, considering the increasing possibility of the far-right reaching Argentina.

Both in the Together for Change and the Union for the Homeland parties, there’s a belief that whoever is left out of the runoff will face implosion.

The opposition warns that the Kirchnerist movement will become a radicalized minority, and that the Peronist party will begin a reorganization process without Cristina Kirchner.

Considering the scenario where the far-right will reach Argentina, what can be expected? Most likely, next month’s inflation will be in the double digits, and this will be an indelible mark affecting Massa, one of the candidates.

But beyond the obvious, some even speculate that Milei could win in the first round; no one completely dismisses this possibility.

In Argentina, to win in the first round, the leading candidate must have a 10-point difference over the second or reach 45% of the votes.

Despite the delicate economic situation and the weakness of the officialist coalition, UP believes that conditions are favorable for entering the runoff as the second option.

¿Will the far-right reach Argentina? It seems so, and this opens the door to similar situations in the rest of the region if the experiment succeeds in this country.

Also read: Claudia Sheinbaum’s Growing Lead in Mexico’s Presidential Race